As part of this collaborative project, scenarios for the future of European transport and the transport industry will be developed.
RACE2050 foresight study aims to identify key success factors for a sustainable growth of the European Transport industry and for policies which can increase its strength in a long perspective up to 2050.
By integrating the tremendous available foresight intelligence into a comparative synopsis, we will be able to compare and assess various visions and especially different policies to reach these goals. The results of this analysis will be discussed with experts from the transport industry, research, policy, and the foresight field. By this, we will come up with weighted explanations and core concepts for a sustainable strength of the transport industry.
By studying the actual impacts of past foresight studies we will learn how to present our own integrative foresight synopsis and what to expect from transport industry and policy. Important drivers of change will be extracted by analysing current policies, emerging technologies, energy and environment aspects, demand forces, geopolitical trends and other relevant domains.
General Morphological Analysis (GMA) will then be used to integrate and assess a multitude of driving forces for alternative scenarios. Wild Cards analysis will provide additional important input to the final outcomes: novel scenarios for 2030 and 2050 on the competitiveness of the European transport industry. The scenario construction will be supported by a web-based interactive foresight synopsis tool, envisioned to create a long-term legacy for stakeholders, lasting beyond the duration of the project.
Towards a sustainable and competitive transport industry
There is a plethora of long-term foresight studies on a cleaner, greener and more user-friendly European transport industry. An EU initiative aims to summarise all this available information and to compare and evaluate the various visions and policies to reach their intended targets.
Studying the effects and outcomes of existing vision documents can increase the impact of potential transport foresight studies because they offer the opportunity to modify future plans and expectations. The extensive foresight literature and body of knowledge at hand could potentially shape actions to promote a more efficient and sustainable transport sector.
With this in mind, the EU-funded http://www.race2050.org/ (RACE2050) (Responsible innovation agenda for competitive European transport industries up to 2050) project set out to identify key success factors for sustained growth of the European transport industry and for policies to strengthen it long term until 2050.
Following an exhaustive assessment of past transport foresight studies, project partners developed and validated scenarios that represent potential encouraging and gloomy futures for 2030 and 2050, respectively. These scenarios serve as opposing visions on the status of the European transport industry's global competitiveness. The two prototype scenarios were presented and elaborated in a series of workshops targeting key players from the transport industry and research community as well as policymakers and foresight experts.
The team assessed the current EU transport industry situation and estimated the impact of the transport market and the driving forces and challenges shaping current and future transport demands. It also analysed the trends, limitations and challenges of the technological, economic and social factors affecting the transport industry.
Ongoing work in RACE2050 will help finalise novel scenarios for 2030 and 2050 on the competitiveness of the European transport industry. This will ultimately enable the sector to maintain its leading position in the world economy up to 2050.
- RITCHEY CONSULTING AB
- TRANSPORTOKONOMISK INSTITUTT
- INTERDISCIPLINARY CENTER FOR TECHNOLOGICAL ANALYSIS AND FORECASTING
- ZURCHER HOCHSCHULE FUR ANGEWANDTE WISSENSCHAFTEN
- VTM-CONSULTORES EM ENGENHARIA E PLANEAMENTO LDA